Flu season is an annual period, typically lasting from the Northern-Hemisphere autumn to early spring, when cases of influenza and other respiratory illnesses surge.
This seasonal spike sees increased patient volumes, and the demand for testing and treatments rises sharply.
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In a post-pandemic world, the intersection of flu season with ongoing concerns about Covid-19 and other respiratory illnesses has only heightened the demand for reliable testing solutions, with multitarget tests rising as the gold standard for respiratory testing.
The US respiratory test market has experienced notable fluctuations during and after the Covid-19 pandemic, impacting everything from healthcare demand to retail trends.
As we enter flu season, these shifts remain evident, particularly in a post-pandemic world where concerns about respiratory illnesses persist.
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The annual flu season typically strains healthcare systems, especially when combined with heightened awareness of respiratory infections.
To estimate what the potential 2024 peak test sales would be, sample data from May 2024 was used.
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By GlobalDataIf sales trends align with those of 2022, an estimated 8.8 to 10.5 million respiratory tests (not including over-the-counter tests) may be sold in the US at the peak of flu season.
However, if trends mirror 2023, the estimate would be between 14.1 and 16.7 million tests.
This analysis is based on growth patterns observed in the US between the lowest sales months (typically in spring and summer) and the peak of flu season (November to February).
Another factor that could alter test sales volume is the rise of multiparameter testing.
In 2020, 84.25% of respiratory tests tracked were single-plex tests, compared to 48.33% in 2024 year-to-date (YTD).
On the other hand, mid-plex (three to ten targets) has risen from 4.66% in 2020 to 33.97% in 2024 YTD.
Thus, volume shrinkage over the years is not only attributed to decreased testing but also to the growing market of multiparameter tests in the respiratory field.
