Dexcom has shaken off the lower sales outlook that plagued its share price in 2024 as the diabetes device developer forecasts a healthier total annual revenue of $4.6bn for 2025.
The outlook was in line with Wall Street expectations, as per Reuters. Shares in the Nasdaq-listed company rose 5% at market open on 13 January compared to a pre-announcement market close. Dexcom released the news ahead of a presentation at the JP Morgan Healthcare 2025 conference on the same day.
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The diabetes device maker reported Q4 revenues of at least $1.113bn, up 8% from the same period in 2023. US activities accounted for a large portion of the revenue – around $803m, though international revenue grew at a higher rate of 17% compared to 4% in the US.
Dexcom’s shares dropped nearly 37% last year largely due to a reduced annual revenue forecast. At the time, the company highlighted a disruptive restructuring of its sales team, fewer customers, and decreased revenue as factors for the lower than anticipated target. Total annual revenue for 2024 came in at $4bn for the company.
Dexcom’s CEO Kevin Sayer said: “Many good things happened in 2024 for us. At the same time, when you’re our size and you attempt many things, sometimes things can get a little choppy, and they did. But as our quarter ended in 2024, as we see our progress over the last six months, we’re very excited for our 2025 opportunity.”
GlobalData medical device analyst Shane Dibblee said: “Dexcom’s 2024 performance is impressive, posting an expected 2024 sales revenue growth of 11% compared to 2023 and significantly higher than the 4.2% growth GlobalData projects for the larger CGM segment. This growth has largely been driven by strong expansion of international sales.”
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By GlobalDataDexcom’s outlook for 2025 is being spearheaded by the success of Stelo, the first over-the-counter continuous glucose monitor (CGM) in the US. Approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in March 2024, it was a major coup by Dexcom as the company targets wider diabetes coverage.
“In the US we plan to grow in all of our core markets, and as we get near the end of the year in the US markets, we see our volume and our revenue number growth converging to whereby that’s a little more predictable for everybody,” Sayer said.
Sayer added there is a “huge market opportunity” for the 4.5 million people in the US who are on insulin therapy but are not on CGM. Dexcom also highlighted the size of future market segments, such as gestational diabetes, prediabetes, and type 2 non-insulin users.
In June 2024, Dibblee said that the full national reimbursement for Dexcom ONE secured in France was “of particular note” for the company, adding that this trend is expected to continue into this year as strong patient demand leads to more reimbursements worldwide.
Dexcom currently has around 74% of the CGM market share in the US, according to analysis by GlobalData. The gap to other medical device companies could widen if the uptake of Stelo is high and Dexcom’s upcoming product launches penetrate even more CGM-naïve populations.
One of the smaller revenue drivers is expected to be G7’s increased wear time pending an FDA decision. Dexcom submitted its 15-day G7 CGM to the FDA in October 2024 and an approval by the FDA would open further market opportunity as the G7 currently has a wear time of ten days. Sayer reported the company is already seeing “good” 15-day results with Stelo.
“We’ll have Stelo for the entire year, and we’re also planning on a 15-day product launch over the second half of the year, that could be a slight growth catalyst for us,” Sayer said whilst looking ahead to 2025.
During the presentation, Dexcom said it expects to have commercial coverage for more than five million people with type 2 diabetes who are not on insulin by the end of this year.
JP Morgan analyst Robbie Marcus remarked during the presentation that “it was a really impressive fourth quarter” for Dexcom in terms of increased patient numbers added by the company.
